13 Aug State of the Market – 13 August 2014
My short term indicator is nearing overbought levels. Hold any purchases.
My medium term indicator is currently oversold. If you’re a big believer in the continuation of the bull market, this is not a bad entry point.
The long term indicator remains very overbought. I don’t know if this will ever matter. But I believe in averages and reversions to the mean. It SHOULD eventually revert.
I’ve been overweight on treasuries, intermediate and long term, since January. This has been a profitable and good trade. That said, due to the extent the stock market has sold off (risk off), and the appreciation of the bonds, I have exited these positions hoping for a better entry point again in the future.