State of the Market – 23 February 2015

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Long term is still off highs and trending slightly up.  The damage done in September to many stocks has yet to be recovered.

 

 

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Medium term is slightly overbought, but off historically high levels.

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Short term has declined the past few days.

The market has seasonal tailwinds through April.  In addition, the VIX still remains off lows which gives it some room to fall and remain flat as stocks rise.

A few concerns remain – the significant weakness found in many stocks the past year or so.  In addition, the monetary base growth is currently at zero which typically is correlated quite well with the S&P-500 the last six years.