State of the Market – 21 September 2014


Long term is off highs and appears to be heading down.  However, it is still overbought.mt21_sept_2014

Medium term is slightly oversold, and it appears that its rate of descent is slowing.st21_sept_2014Short term is back near neutral territory.  If this rolls back over, expect hard selling.


Silver continues to sell off.  Regrettably, the weekly RSI indicator is not even close to being historically oversold.  The daily indicator (not pictured here) is oversold.

gld21_sept_2014Gold is still above recent low, but it’s failure to deliver on the inverse head and shoulders pattern should be considered a negative sign.  Unfortunately, the weekly RSI also is not oversold.  It really needs to get back above the 50 and 200 day / week moving averages.


For the first time in years the miners ETF, GDX, is outpacing Gold as illustrated in this chart showing GDX in terms of gold (red/black line) against the price of gold itself (black line).  Historically, the miners lead the price of the metal up so this may be a good sign. However, the metal itself is less volatile.  We’ll have to see.  We need all of these to break out of their persistent negative trend and get above long term moving averages before scaling back in.