Scott Schlegel’s Stock Market Indicators – November 15th, 2019

Things are getting wild out there. Animal Spirits Released! You cannot lose money in the stock market – each day a new rumor of a trade deal with China gets floated and the Fed promises to create more new debt-notes.

Ultra short term remains consistently elevated. Slightly overbought.

Short term is neutral. Very much not following the S&P.
Medium term is mostly neutral. Again a slight disconnect from all time highs.
Long term has finally climbed back into neutral territory.

As most of you who have been following me for a while know, I like to look for disconnects which show some market inefficiency or buying / selling that is not showing up in the major watched market indices.

What we’re seeing now is continual flow into the major market indices – likely via their heaviest cap stocks and their ETFs – and not tons of money flowing into every individual stock that is not heavily represented in the major indices. This is not to say you can’t make money from a market like this – it’s just that if you buy the wrong stocks, you could end up losing money while the indices go up. Seasonality has been good since mid October and stocks have reflected such. Usually early to mid December is a mix.