A Strange Correlation Between Vax Rate and Cases

Anecdotally I noticed a significant number of people who had completed their vaccine series testing positive for COVID over the last month.

I wondered if I could find some data to confirm this.  I found two datasets that I thought could help me piece this together. Both directly from the CDC site.  I used data for every county in the US.  There are 3,144 counties in the US.  This suggests the data is “statistically significant.”

The first was: United States COVID-19 County Level of Community Transmission as Originally Posted

The second was: COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States,County

Of course they wouldn’t be already combined because that would be useful information.  So I had to combine them and match up every county’s fully vaxxed rate with that same county’s case rate for the last 7 days per 100K people.  All data is up to date as of 12/30/21.

The results are astounding and match the data out of the UK and Denmark.  Below you’ll see every county in the US’ vaccination rate (completed the series) vs the amount of cases in that county.  The trendline, if the vaccines were effective in reducing transmission or infection, would be going from upper left corner (lowest vax, highest case growth) to the lower right corner (highest vax, lowest case growth).  It does the exact opposite.


Knowing surely that the rational solution proposed would be that people would just need boosters to control spread, I used the same vaccination data from the CDC above to compare to each county’s booster rate to the case rate.  At least this series doesn’t show an increase in infections associated with higher vax rate.  But it generally shows no efficacy whatsoever with a flat line with a slightly positive slope.  In other words, “virus gonna virus.”


Summarizing the two tables above, I come up with the following thoughts in order of least concern to most concern.

  1. Perhaps counties that are most concern with COVID are more highly vaccinated and therefore more likely go get tested; the problem with this theory is that if the vaccines were going to “drive the virus into the ground” per Fauci with a +70% vax rate, then those counties wouldn’t have extreme case rates.
  2. Perhaps counties with more COVID cases are simply more densely populated leading to more transmission; good theory, but again, if the vax worked – even in a densely populated area – you’d see higher vax rates produce less cases.
  3. Perhaps people who are vaxxed are out doing more normal things like going to restaurants.  Good theory again, but those who are unvaxed are typically not the type who are letting the virus prevent them from doing activities.
  4. Perhaps the vaccines are simply, like the flu vaccines, are increasing positive test results.  After all, they are using mRNA to introduce the “viral genetic sequence, which was published by China into a public database” (Fauci’s words, not mine) into human cells to get them to produce the virus’ spike protein.  This might allow a portion of the genetic sequence (that which makes up the spike protein) be produced in large enough amounts by the body to be detected by tests also looking for that genetic sequence.
  5. Perhaps the areas with highest vax rates have the highest vax resistant strains which might be more communicable; there is some data and studies suggesting this is occurring.
  6. If the vaccines were simply not effective at all in stopping transmission relative to not vaccinated at all, I suspect we would see a flat line for both fully jabbed and boosted.   We would see low vax rate counties look very similar to high vax rate counties.  But we’re actually seeing more cases in the fully jabbed, and marginal “improvement” in the booster data departing the terrible baseline representing the fully jabbed (non boosted).  This seems to indicate some decline from Day 0 (of any vaccine) of ZERO EFFICACY into NEGATIVE EFFICACY territory.  This suggests there is some odd “immune fatigue” or “immune erosion” going on in those taking the vaccines.   Let’s hope it’s simply against COVID and not against other illnesses.   Other data, such as that in the UK (Week 42 report, page 23), has suggested this in publications in the past.   This would be awful.

Here are some bonus data that I found interesting. There is a classification of transmission rate in the county data called “Suppressed” transmission.  I combined it with all of the other case rates of less than 50 per 100K per last seven days and then plotted it against the double-jab rate for those counties.  The average of those counties is only 36.98 percent double-jabbed.  Extremely low, right?

I then did the same with the Booster completion percentage. The result is very similar.  A remarkably low booster rate of 37% of the population corresponds with the counties with suppressed transmission.

This post does not intend to debate at how effective the vaccines are at reducing severe illness.  That is the topic of another post.

But it does clearly show the data does not support any type of herd immunity thought to be brought about by mass vaccination campaigns by sovereigns or corporations.  It actually seems to suggest mass vaccinations are making the case load worse.

Harvard Researchers published similar results in this study – Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/