We ended up deciding to create another site (www.smashtrades.com) for all my stock market indicators, and our opinions on the market. But until that is developed, we’ll continue to provide our indicators here for free. The new site will offer much more than just the stock market indicators shown below: opinions from several investment experts, fundamental economic indicators, and more frequent updates.
The short term indicator (top pane) has shown a rapid bounce off the lows the last two days. We pointed out an oversold condition prior to the recent market rally starting. The medium term indicator (bottom pane) remains oversold. Fear reached a climax last Wednesday around noontime. At the time, I communicated with our team that I would be continuing to close profitable short-sales and take long positions in QQQ and DVY. Currently, the plan is to hold those positions until the short term indicator reaches overbought conditions unless something else changes beforehand. Our TLT trade from two weeks ago remains in the money and has not yet been closed.
Fundamentally, the economy continues to weaken, but it has yet to give a clear recessionary signal.