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State of the Market – 13 August 2014

13 August 2014


 My short term indicator is nearing overbought levels.  Hold any purchases.


My medium term indicator is currently oversold.  If you’re a big believer in the continuation of the bull market, this is not a bad entry point.


The long term indicator remains very overbought.  I don’t know if this will ever matter.  But I believe in averages and reversions to the mean.  It SHOULD eventually revert.

I’ve been overweight on treasuries, intermediate and long term, since January.  This has been a profitable and good trade.  That said, due to the extent the stock market has sold off (risk off), and the appreciation of the bonds, I have exited these positions hoping for a better entry point again in the future.

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