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Scott Schlegel’s Stock Market Indicators – September 17th, 2019

17 September 2019

Hey all, here are the latest readings from my proprietary stock market indicators.

The ultra short term indicator is hanging out near neutral levels. It’s been rather weak since the initial rally off the bottom.
The short term indicator is overbought by recent standards. Clearly since the bottom in late December, there has been some uncertainty in stock market breadth.
Medium term is slightly overbought..
Long term has finally creeped to 50% of stocks in long term uptrends. This is a bit of a lagging indicator so not much to celebrate.

So how do I interpret the tea leaves as they currently lay? S&P is entering a seasonally weak period from Mid September to Mid October. Liquidity issues are being addressed by the Fed before anything “bad” has even happened in equity markets.

The volatility index (VIX) is not at lows in spite of S&P-500 being near all time highs. This non-confirmation can portend weakness in addition to the clear fact that S&P didn’t make new all time high.

In summary, from a risk management perspective, it is not a fantastic time to buy.

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