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Scott Schlegel’s Stock Market Indicators – July 27, 2019

27 July 2019
Ultra short term made a dramatic jump back to neutral after some noticeable weakness.
Short term is neutral to slightly overbought. Still lagging recent peaks indicating some weakness behind the scenes of the S&P.
Medium term has decidedly broken down in spite of the continued rise of the S&P. This again shows people are selling without it showing up in the mainstream indices.
Long term might be turning up like it did in the 2000 rally temporarily. This is a lagging indicator so some stocks’ with strong price performance the last three months might finally get a brief throw over of the 50 relative to the 200. See below for the squared area on the chart showing the light climb of the long term indicator in 2000 until it actually peaked exactly with the S&P. Lagging stocks caught up and then rolled over to reenter their bear market which portended the overall market’s bear market.

However, a relief rally such as that is typically short lived when something takes about four months to get out of a bear market it indicates there is not much strength. The best rallies come from long flat periods where it doesn’t take much time for the 50 to cross the 200 – you can see this behavior in gold and silver recently.

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