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Scott Schlegel’s Stock Market Indicators – 12-5-18

05 December 2018


Ultra short term suddenly has plunged to very oversold.


Short term is still neutral. Unfortunately, that means there is room to fall on this one if the market should go that way.


Medium term is neutral. I’m struggling to understand why this recent rally in the indices have failed to bring this up very much. Perhaps it is showing some kind of odd weakness. This was building on itself with the recent low above the previous low, but then failed to get out of bed meaning the recent rally was pretty thin, and there could be a further fall.


Long term is slightly oversold. As this is a bit of a lagging indicator, this maybe isn’t a surprise. However, it could also reflect a likelihood of a further fall before another tradeable bottom.

Keep your eyes on Treasury Bonds.  The recent rally seems quite deflationary after everyone else confidently called a long term top in bonds, it’s appearing that may not be so if this keeps up.

As frequent blog readers know, I suspect rates to stay very low and possibly reach new lows in the next 10-20 years similar to what Japan has seen and similar to the US between 1930 and 1960.  This size market is not going to rapidly move down unless there is a major crisis.

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